Please login into your website profile to download this research report. 

 

We are pleased to introduce the 2024 BCI Horizon Scan Report, one of the most eagerly anticipated reports in our portfolio. We extend our thanks to Noggin for their continued sponsorship of this year’s report. This year’s report falls at a critical point. We are in a ‘super election’ year with more of the global population heading to the polls than ever before with 64 elections taking place globally. This is giving rise to significant civil unrest in some regions, while others are having to deal with the devastating impacts of cross-border conflict – both having severe knock-on effects on global supply chains, cyber-security, staff physical and mental wellbeing, and company balance sheets. In addition to a complex geopolitical backdrop, other businesses are having to deal with the reality of climate change. At the time this report is published, Spain is dealing with the aftermath of its worst flood in modern history, blamed on extreme sea temperatures in the Mediterranean. Meanwhile, El Niño continues to bring extreme heat to parts of Asia, with deaths reported in Thailand and demand for electricity reaching a record high due to the demand for air conditioning.

However, while these events may have been dominating headlines, it is the less headline-grabbing disruptions which are having the most extreme effects on organizations. For the first time in this report’s history, financial fraud is at the top of the list of disruptions for 2024 with a risk score of 16.1. This came as somewhat of a surprise given the impact of known cyber attacks over the past year. However, the UK Financial Ombudsman reported a rise of 43.3% in reported financial fraud cases in the most recent quarter, while also revealing the complexity of those frauds was increasing too. Globally, PWC also reported that procurement fraud is the third greatest cause for financial disruption over the past year.

One of the reasons for the high level of financial fraud this year may be due to the lack of preparedness over the past year. Last year’s report showed that fraud was only in 17th place (out of 28) in terms of concerns for 2024.

Although it has now risen to 11th place for 2025, the laggard still remains between perceived risk (which can be steered by news coverage without comprehensive horizon scanning techniques in place) and emphasises the importance of having plans that are flexible enough to cover the diverse range of events that could hit an organization, often unexpectedly. The one unchallenged event for top position in terms of risks for 2025 remains cyber-attacks. These are traditionally a top-of-mind concern for senior management and, with practitioners all-too-often having to deal with the aftermath of a successful cyber-attack, its position at the top of the table remains unlikely to be challenged.

The heightened awareness of risk and the importance of being prepared is also being driven by tightening regulatory environments, particularly with deadlines for implementation of the EU Digital Operational Resilience Act (DORA), NIS2, and the UK FCA/PRA/Bank of England regulations just around the corner. As such, investment levels in business continuity and resilience are likely to increase for over a quarter of organizations in 2025 (26.1%), while just under half (47.8%) are still planning for investment to be at the same levels.

Our profession is becoming more dynamic but, for many organizations, this means that the use of industry standards is more important than ever. Last year’s report showed an all-time high in alignment to the ISO 22301 standard. This year, many of those organizations have held true to their word in last year’s report with certification levels now at an all-time high (21.1%).

We would like to thank our members and contacts for their time and valuable insights; and for making this report possible through filling in the survey and being available for interviews. We have noted a step change in how organizations are approaching their horizon scanning processes this year: while there still remains a disconnect between perceived future risk vs the disruptions an organization is actually faced with, the gap is closing fast with organizations clearly putting more time into risk scanning and using technology solutions more than ever to help with it. We would, once again, like to offer our sincere appreciation to Noggin for the sponsorship of this report..